Majosi 2–4 Dunaföldvár: Result & Stats

Majosi

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Dunaföldvár

11/5/2023

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 14Majosi SE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Majosi60%

×Draw18%

Dunaföldvár21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MajosiExpected goals in this matchDunaföldvár

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.50

Majosi

2.58

Dunaföldvár

1.50

Majosi creates 72% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

2.07

creates per match

1.23

1.78

allows per match

3.10

creates per match

Majosi

2.07

Dunaföldvár

1.23

allows per match

Majosi

1.78

Dunaföldvár

3.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Majosi+0.00on par

Dunaföldvár+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Majosi ↓

Dunaföldvár →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Majosi or draw

79%

Majosi or Dunaföldvár

82%

Draw or Dunaföldvár

40%

Winning margin

Majosi wins by 2+

40%

Dunaföldvár wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Majosi 1+ goals

92%

Majosi 2+ goals

72%

Majosi 3+ goals

47%

Dunaföldvár 1+ goals

78%

Dunaföldvár 2+ goals

44%

Dunaföldvár 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Majosi (draw refunded)

74%

Dunaföldvár (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Majosi at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

Dunaföldvár away — creates 1.23, concedes 3.10 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Majosi attack 2.07 + Dunaföldvár defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.58

Dunaföldvár attack 1.23 + Majosi defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Majosi scores more

60%

level

18%

Dunaföldvár scores more

21%

Majosi at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Majosi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff