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Maitland vs Weston Bears — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Maitland
Maitland
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Weston Bears
Weston Bears
2/28/2026Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Maitland40%
×Draw23%
Weston Bears37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maitland
1.75
Weston Bears
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 80 away

creates per match

Maitland
2.12
Weston Bears
1.89

allows per match

Maitland
1.44
Weston Bears
1.39

finishing

Maitland+0.00on par
Weston Bears+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maitland ↓

Weston Bears →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Maitland or draw
63%
Maitland or Weston Bears
77%
Draw or Weston Bears
60%

Winning margin

Maitland wins by 2+
21%
Weston Bears wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Maitland 1+ goals
83%
Maitland 2+ goals
52%
Maitland 3+ goals
25%
Weston Bears 1+ goals
81%
Weston Bears 2+ goals
50%
Weston Bears 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Maitland (draw refunded)
52%
Weston Bears (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maitland at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

Weston Bears away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maitland attack 2.12 + Weston Bears defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.75

Weston Bears attack 1.89 + Maitland defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Maitland scores more
40%
level
23%
Weston Bears scores more
37%

Maitland at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Maitland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern NSW NPL: Maitland 1–2 Weston Bears

Weston Bears beat Maitland 2-1 in Northern NSW NPL on February 28, 2026.