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Maitland vs Hamilton Olympic — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Maitland
Maitland
FT
3 – 5
HT: 3 – 3
Hamilton Olympic
Hamilton Olympic
3/23/2025Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 5Cooks Square Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Maitland44%
×Draw23%
Hamilton Olympic33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maitland
1.79
Hamilton Olympic
1.52

Maitland creates 18% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 80 away

creates per match

Maitland
2.12
Hamilton Olympic
1.59

allows per match

Maitland
1.44
Hamilton Olympic
1.46

finishing

Maitland+0.00on par
Hamilton Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maitland ↓

Hamilton Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Maitland or draw
67%
Maitland or Hamilton Olympic
77%
Draw or Hamilton Olympic
56%

Winning margin

Maitland wins by 2+
24%
Hamilton Olympic wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Maitland 1+ goals
83%
Maitland 2+ goals
53%
Maitland 3+ goals
26%
Hamilton Olympic 1+ goals
78%
Hamilton Olympic 2+ goals
45%
Hamilton Olympic 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Maitland (draw refunded)
57%
Hamilton Olympic (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maitland at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

Hamilton Olympic away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.46 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maitland attack 2.12 + Hamilton Olympic defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.79

Hamilton Olympic attack 1.59 + Maitland defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Maitland scores more
44%
level
23%
Hamilton Olympic scores more
33%

Maitland at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Maitland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maitland vs Hamilton Olympic

Hamilton Olympic beat Maitland 5-3 in Northern NSW NPL on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Cooks Square Park in East Maitland.