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Maitland vs Adamstown Rosebuds — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Maitland
Maitland
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Adamstown Rosebuds
Adamstown Rosebuds
3/23/2024Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 5Cooks Square Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Maitland63%
×Draw18%
Adamstown Rosebuds19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maitland
2.50
Adamstown Rosebuds
1.31

Maitland creates 91% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 77 away

creates per match

Maitland
2.12
Adamstown Rosebuds
1.19

allows per match

Maitland
1.44
Adamstown Rosebuds
2.88

finishing

Maitland+0.00on par
Adamstown Rosebuds+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maitland ↓

Adamstown Rosebuds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Maitland or draw
81%
Maitland or Adamstown Rosebuds
82%
Draw or Adamstown Rosebuds
37%

Winning margin

Maitland wins by 2+
41%
Adamstown Rosebuds wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Maitland 1+ goals
92%
Maitland 2+ goals
71%
Maitland 3+ goals
45%
Adamstown Rosebuds 1+ goals
73%
Adamstown Rosebuds 2+ goals
38%
Adamstown Rosebuds 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Maitland (draw refunded)
77%
Adamstown Rosebuds (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maitland at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

Adamstown Rosebuds away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.88 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maitland attack 2.12 + Adamstown Rosebuds defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.50

Adamstown Rosebuds attack 1.19 + Maitland defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Maitland scores more
63%
level
18%
Adamstown Rosebuds scores more
19%

Maitland at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Maitland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern NSW NPL: Maitland 1–1 Adamstown Rosebuds

Maitland and Adamstown Rosebuds drew 1-1 in Northern NSW NPL on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Cooks Square Park in East Maitland.