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Adamstown Rosebuds vs Maitland — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Adamstown Rosebuds
Adamstown Rosebuds
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Maitland
Maitland
4/11/2026Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Adamstown Rosebuds21%
×Draw20%
Maitland59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adamstown Rosebuds
1.27
Maitland
2.26

Maitland creates 78% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 81 away

creates per match

Adamstown Rosebuds
0.96
Maitland
2.22

allows per match

Adamstown Rosebuds
2.30
Maitland
1.59

finishing

Adamstown Rosebuds+0.00on par
Maitland+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adamstown Rosebuds ↓

Maitland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Adamstown Rosebuds or draw
41%
Adamstown Rosebuds or Maitland
80%
Draw or Maitland
79%

Winning margin

Adamstown Rosebuds wins by 2+
8%
Maitland wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Adamstown Rosebuds 1+ goals
72%
Adamstown Rosebuds 2+ goals
36%
Adamstown Rosebuds 3+ goals
14%
Maitland 1+ goals
89%
Maitland 2+ goals
66%
Maitland 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Adamstown Rosebuds (draw refunded)
26%
Maitland (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adamstown Rosebuds at home — creates 0.96, concedes 2.30 · 76 matches

Maitland away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.59 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adamstown Rosebuds attack 0.96 + Maitland defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.27

Maitland attack 2.22 + Adamstown Rosebuds defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Adamstown Rosebuds scores more
21%
level
20%
Maitland scores more
59%

Maitland at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Maitland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern NSW NPL: Adamstown Rosebuds 2–5 Maitland

Maitland beat Adamstown Rosebuds 5-2 in Northern NSW NPL on April 11, 2026.