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Galícia vs ABPN Canaã — Baiano - 2 2019

Galícia
Galícia
FT
0 – 1
ABPN Canaã
ABPN Canaã
3/23/2019Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 3Estádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Galícia49%
×Draw28%
ABPN Canaã23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galícia
1.36
ABPN Canaã
0.82

Galícia creates 66% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

creates per match

Galícia
0.90
ABPN Canaã
0.64

allows per match

Galícia
1.00
ABPN Canaã
1.82

finishing

Galícia+0.00on par
ABPN Canaã+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galícia ↓

ABPN Canaã →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Galícia or draw
77%
Galícia or ABPN Canaã
72%
Draw or ABPN Canaã
51%

Winning margin

Galícia wins by 2+
24%
ABPN Canaã wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Galícia 1+ goals
74%
Galícia 2+ goals
39%
Galícia 3+ goals
16%
ABPN Canaã 1+ goals
56%
ABPN Canaã 2+ goals
20%
ABPN Canaã 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Galícia (draw refunded)
69%
ABPN Canaã (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galícia at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

ABPN Canaã away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galícia attack 0.90 + ABPN Canaã defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.36

ABPN Canaã attack 0.64 + Galícia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Galícia scores more
49%
level
28%
ABPN Canaã scores more
23%

Galícia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Galícia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Galícia 0–1 ABPN Canaã

ABPN Canaã beat Galícia 1-0 in Baiano - 2 on March 23, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos in Salvador de Bahia, Bahia.