Mainz 05 U19 5–1 Union Berlin U19: Result & Stats

Mainz 05 U19

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Union Berlin U19

F. Engel 84'

N. Lehmann 79' (OG)

Raúl König 34' (pen)

K. Potulski 11'

Tebo Gabriel 8'

L. Prosche 28'

2/2/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 1Stadion am Bruchweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Mainz 05 U1948%

×Draw21%

Union Berlin U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mainz 05 U19Expected goals in this matchUnion Berlin U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.69

Mainz 05 U19

2.15

Union Berlin U19

1.69

Mainz 05 U19 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 76 away

2.60

creates per match

1.95

1.44

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Mainz 05 U19

2.60

Union Berlin U19

1.95

allows per match

Mainz 05 U19

1.44

Union Berlin U19

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mainz 05 U19 ↓

Union Berlin U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Mainz 05 U19 or draw

69%

Mainz 05 U19 or Union Berlin U19

79%

Draw or Union Berlin U19

52%

Winning margin

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+

28%

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals

88%

Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals

63%

Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals

36%

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

82%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

50%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mainz 05 U19 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

Union Berlin U19 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.70 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.60 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.15

Union Berlin U19 attack 1.95 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mainz 05 U19 scores more

48%

level

21%

Union Berlin U19 scores more

31%

Mainz 05 U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Tebo Gabriel

11'

K. Potulski

28'

L. Prosche

34'

Raúl KönigPenalty

56'

J. Ugljanin← A. Latifi

65'

T. Blaszczak← S. Tabuaa

65'

T. Sakoufakis← A. Riedel

65'

O. Engel← T. Kannegießer

70'

Mika Preßler← Raúl König

70'

S. Horozović← T. Weileder

75'

F. Hoffmann← G. Mewes

79'

N. LehmannOwn goal

82'

Suheib-Elias Ali← D. Sliskovic

84'

F. Engel

86'

J. Mustapha← F. Engel

86'

L. Rahmann← S. Touré

86'

R. Monteiro Antunes← S. Horozović

Mainz

Union

⚽

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

König

▼

Touré

Manager: J. Kirchhoff

56'▲J. Ugljanin←▼A. Latifi

70'▲Mika Preßler←▼Raúl König

70'▲S. Horozović←▼T. Weileder

86'▲J. Mustapha←▼F. Engel

86'▲L. Rahmann←▼S. Touré

86'▲R. Monteiro Antunes←▼S. Horozović

Mainz 05 U19 substitutes

UgljaninPreßlerHorozovićMustaphaRahmannAntunesPosch

Manager: M. Grote

65'▲T. Blaszczak←▼S. Tabuaa

65'▲T. Sakoufakis←▼A. Riedel

65'▲O. Engel←▼T. Kannegießer

75'▲F. Hoffmann←▼G. Mewes

82'▲Suheib-Elias Ali←▼D. Sliskovic

Union Berlin U19 substitutes

BlaszczakSakoufakisEngelHoffmannAliCiobanuRodtnick

Match Recap: Mainz 05 U19 vs Union Berlin U19

Mainz 05 U19 beat Union Berlin U19 5-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 2, 2025.

Goals: Tebo Gabriel (8'), K. Potulski (11'), L. Prosche (28'), Raúl König (34' pen), N. Lehmann (79' o.g.), F. Engel (84').

The match was played at Stadion am Bruchweg in Mainz.

Mainz 05 U19 vs Union Berlin U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mainz 05 U19 vs Union Berlin U19