Mainz 05 U19 vs St. Pauli U19 — DFB Junioren Pokal 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
Mainz 05 U1965%
St. Pauli U1918%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Mainz 05 U19 creates 91% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over82
- Under18
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes75
- No25
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Mainz 05 U19 ↓
Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Mainz 05 U19 at home — creates 2.63, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches
St. Pauli U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.63 + St. Pauli U19 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.98
St. Pauli U19 attack 1.00 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.56
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 65%?"
Mainz 05 U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 65% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Mainz 05 U19 host St. Pauli U19 on Sunday, 11 December 2022 at 10:00. The match is part of the DFB Junioren Pokal 2020/2021 season.
Mainz 05 U19 5 – 2 St. Pauli U19
Mainz 05 U19 beat St. Pauli U19 5-2 in DFB Junioren Pokal on December 11, 2022.
Goals: B. Gruda (35', 83'), I. Martinović (45', 60'), B. Winter (49' pen), L. Bierschenk (53'), J. Gramberg (86').
The match was played at Stadion am Bruchweg in Mainz.