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Mainz 05 U19 vs RB Leipzig U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Mainz 05 U19
Mainz 05 U19
FT
2 – 5
HT: 2 – 2
RB Leipzig U19
RB Leipzig U19
R. Konig 29'
M. Pressler 19'
L. Hennig 81'
R. Ramsak 73', 48'
A. Al Khalaf 21'
V. Gebel 5'
4/12/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 10Stadion am Bruchweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Mainz 05 U1944%
×Draw21%
RB Leipzig U1935%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mainz 05 U19
2.04
RB Leipzig U19
1.80

Mainz 05 U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 73 away

creates per match

Mainz 05 U19
2.60
RB Leipzig U19
2.16

allows per match

Mainz 05 U19
1.44
RB Leipzig U19
1.47

finishing

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par
RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mainz 05 U19 ↓

RB Leipzig U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Mainz 05 U19 or draw
65%
Mainz 05 U19 or RB Leipzig U19
79%
Draw or RB Leipzig U19
56%

Winning margin

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+
25%
RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals
87%
Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals
60%
Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals
33%
RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals
83%
RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals
54%
RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)
56%
RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mainz 05 U19 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

RB Leipzig U19 away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.47 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.60 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.04

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.16 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mainz 05 U19 scores more
44%
level
21%
RB Leipzig U19 scores more
35%

Mainz 05 U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
V. Gebel
19'
M. Pressler
21'
A. Al Khalaf
29'
R. Konig
48'
R. Ramsak
73'
R. Ramsak
81'
L. Hennig
Mainz
RB
J. Kirchhoff
Manager: J. Kirchhoff
S. Heidinger
Manager: S. Heidinger

Mainz 05 U19 2 – 5 RB Leipzig U19

RB Leipzig U19 beat Mainz 05 U19 5-2 in U19 Bundesliga on April 12, 2025.

Goals: V. Gebel (5'), M. Pressler (19'), A. Al Khalaf (21'), R. Konig (29'), R. Ramsak (48', 73'), L. Hennig (81').

The match was played at Stadion am Bruchweg in Mainz.