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Mainz 05 U19 vs Nürnberg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Mainz 05 U19
Mainz 05 U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nürnberg U19
Nürnberg U19
8/10/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 2Stadion am Bruchweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Mainz 05 U1947%
×Draw21%
Nürnberg U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mainz 05 U19
2.15
Nürnberg U19
1.74

Mainz 05 U19 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 60 away

creates per match

Mainz 05 U19
2.53
Nürnberg U19
1.98

allows per match

Mainz 05 U19
1.50
Nürnberg U19
1.77

finishing

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par
Nürnberg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mainz 05 U19 ↓

Nürnberg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Mainz 05 U19 or draw
68%
Mainz 05 U19 or Nürnberg U19
79%
Draw or Nürnberg U19
53%

Winning margin

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+
28%
Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals
88%
Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals
63%
Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals
36%
Nürnberg U19 1+ goals
82%
Nürnberg U19 2+ goals
52%
Nürnberg U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)
60%
Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mainz 05 U19 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

Nürnberg U19 away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.53 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.15

Nürnberg U19 attack 1.98 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mainz 05 U19 scores more
47%
level
21%
Nürnberg U19 scores more
32%

Mainz 05 U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mainz 05 U19 3 – 0 Nürnberg U19

Mainz 05 U19 beat Nürnberg U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion am Bruchweg in Mainz.