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Mainz 05 U19 vs MSV Duisburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Mainz 05 U19
Mainz 05 U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
MSV Duisburg U19
MSV Duisburg U19
Mika Preßler 90', 13'
L. Jennissen 90'
8/3/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 1Stadion am Bruchweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Mainz 05 U1956%
×Draw20%
MSV Duisburg U1924%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mainz 05 U19
2.24
MSV Duisburg U19
1.42

Mainz 05 U19 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 68 away

creates per match

Mainz 05 U19
2.60
MSV Duisburg U19
1.40

allows per match

Mainz 05 U19
1.44
MSV Duisburg U19
1.88

finishing

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par
MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mainz 05 U19 ↓

MSV Duisburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Mainz 05 U19 or draw
76%
Mainz 05 U19 or MSV Duisburg U19
80%
Draw or MSV Duisburg U19
44%

Winning margin

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+
34%
MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals
89%
Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals
65%
Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals
38%
MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals
76%
MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals
41%
MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)
70%
MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mainz 05 U19 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

MSV Duisburg U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.88 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.60 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.24

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.40 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mainz 05 U19 scores more
56%
level
20%
MSV Duisburg U19 scores more
24%

Mainz 05 U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
Mika Preßler
90'
L. Jennissen
90'
Mika Preßler
Mainz
MSV
J. Kirchhoff
Manager: J. Kirchhoff
M. Jahn
Manager: M. Jahn

Match Recap: Mainz 05 U19 vs MSV Duisburg U19

Mainz 05 U19 beat MSV Duisburg U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 3, 2025.

Goals: Mika Preßler (13', 90'), L. Jennissen (90').

The match was played at Stadion am Bruchweg in Mainz.