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Mainz 05 U19 vs Manchester City U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Mainz 05 U19
Mainz 05 U19advanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Manchester City U19
Manchester City U19
2/27/2024UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Round of 16Stadion am Bruchweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mainz 05 U1929%
×Draw23%
Manchester City U1948%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mainz 05 U19
1.38
Manchester City U19
1.85

Manchester City U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 20 away

creates per match

Mainz 05 U19
1.25
Manchester City U19
1.95

allows per match

Mainz 05 U19
1.75
Manchester City U19
1.50

finishing

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par
Manchester City U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mainz 05 U19 ↓

Manchester City U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mainz 05 U19 or draw
52%
Mainz 05 U19 or Manchester City U19
77%
Draw or Manchester City U19
71%

Winning margin

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+
13%
Manchester City U19 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals
75%
Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals
40%
Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals
16%
Manchester City U19 1+ goals
84%
Manchester City U19 2+ goals
55%
Manchester City U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)
37%
Manchester City U19 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mainz 05 U19 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Manchester City U19 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mainz 05 U19 attack 1.25 + Manchester City U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Manchester City U19 attack 1.95 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mainz 05 U19 scores more
29%
level
23%
Manchester City U19 scores more
48%

Manchester City U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Manchester City U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mainz 05 U19 vs Manchester City U19

Mainz 05 U19 beat Manchester City U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on February 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion am Bruchweg in Mainz.