Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mainz 05 U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Mainz 05 U19
Mainz 05 U19
CANC
11:00
Kaiserslautern U19
Kaiserslautern U19
4/10/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 16Stadion am Bruchweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Mainz 05 U1955%
×Draw20%
Kaiserslautern U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mainz 05 U19
2.40
Kaiserslautern U19
1.58

Mainz 05 U19 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 59 away

creates per match

Mainz 05 U19
2.53
Kaiserslautern U19
1.66

allows per match

Mainz 05 U19
1.50
Kaiserslautern U19
2.27

finishing

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par
Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mainz 05 U19 ↓

Kaiserslautern U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Mainz 05 U19 or draw
75%
Mainz 05 U19 or Kaiserslautern U19
80%
Draw or Kaiserslautern U19
45%

Winning margin

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+
35%
Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals
91%
Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals
69%
Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals
42%
Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals
79%
Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals
47%
Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)
69%
Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mainz 05 U19 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

Kaiserslautern U19 away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.27 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.53 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.40

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.66 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mainz 05 U19 scores more
55%
level
20%
Kaiserslautern U19 scores more
25%

Mainz 05 U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mainz 05 U19 face Kaiserslautern U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

U19 Bundesliga returns with Mainz 05 U19 hosting Kaiserslautern U19. Match starts April 10, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Mainz 05 U19 host Kaiserslautern U19 at Stadion am Bruchweg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.