Mainz 05 U19 2–5 Eintracht Frankf U19

Mainz 05 U19

FT

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 4

Eintracht Frankf U19

S. Touré 87'

A. Dardari 28'

A. Alaoui 63' (pen), 45'

Junior Awusi 45+2'

P. Wünsch 33', 4'

4/13/2024

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 22Stadion am Bruchweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Mainz 05 U1946%

×Draw20%

Eintracht Frankf U1933%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mainz 05 U19Expected goals in this matchEintracht Frankf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.86

Mainz 05 U19

2.21

Eintracht Frankf U19

1.86

Mainz 05 U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 74 away

2.60

creates per match

2.28

1.44

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Mainz 05 U19

2.60

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.28

allows per match

Mainz 05 U19

1.44

Eintracht Frankf U19

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Eintracht Frankf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mainz 05 U19 ↓

Eintracht Frankf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Mainz 05 U19 or draw

67%

Mainz 05 U19 or Eintracht Frankf U19

80%

Draw or Eintracht Frankf U19

54%

Winning margin

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+

27%

Eintracht Frankf U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals

89%

Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals

65%

Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals

38%

Eintracht Frankf U19 1+ goals

84%

Eintracht Frankf U19 2+ goals

55%

Eintracht Frankf U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Eintracht Frankf U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mainz 05 U19 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

Eintracht Frankf U19 away — creates 2.28, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.60 + Eintracht Frankf U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.21

Eintracht Frankf U19 attack 2.28 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mainz 05 U19 scores more

46%

level

20%

Eintracht Frankf U19 scores more

33%

Mainz 05 U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

20'

28'

33'

37'

T. Hannak← A. Harangi

45'

45+2'

46'

46'

63'

A. AlaouiPenalty

65'

R. Savvidis← A. Loune

80'

B. Görtler← M. Wiesnet

80'

D. Azakir← J. Amann

80'

F. Wollstadt← P. Wünsch

80'

G. Franco← Junior Awusi

80'

M. Mazzone← A. Alaoui

87'

S. Touré

Mainz

Eintracht

▼

⚽

▼

Awusi

Fenyö

▼

Loune

⚽2

▼

Wünsch

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: J. Kirchhoff

20'▲S. Horozović←▼M. Dal

46'▲Raúl König←▼F. Engel

46'▲S. Touré←▼J. Frenzel

80'▲B. Görtler←▼M. Wiesnet

80'▲D. Azakir←▼J. Amann

Mainz 05 U19 substitutes

HorozovićKönigTouréGörtlerAzakirKljajićZuther

Manager: H. Rasche

37'▲T. Hannak←▼A. Harangi

65'▲R. Savvidis←▼A. Loune

80'▲F. Wollstadt←▼P. Wünsch

80'▲G. Franco←▼Junior Awusi

80'▲M. Mazzone←▼A. Alaoui

Eintracht Frankf U19 substitutes

HannakSavvidisWollstadtFrancoMazzoneBrätz