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Mainz 05 U19 vs Dinamo Minsk U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Mainz 05 U19
Mainz 05 U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Minsk U19
Dinamo Minsk U19
11/29/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundStadion am Bruchweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mainz 05 U1932%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Minsk U1943%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mainz 05 U19
1.23
Dinamo Minsk U19
1.48

Dinamo Minsk U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Mainz 05 U19
1.25
Dinamo Minsk U19
1.20

allows per match

Mainz 05 U19
1.75
Dinamo Minsk U19
1.20

finishing

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par
Dinamo Minsk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mainz 05 U19 ↓

Dinamo Minsk U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mainz 05 U19 or draw
57%
Mainz 05 U19 or Dinamo Minsk U19
74%
Draw or Dinamo Minsk U19
68%

Winning margin

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+
13%
Dinamo Minsk U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals
71%
Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals
35%
Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals
13%
Dinamo Minsk U19 1+ goals
77%
Dinamo Minsk U19 2+ goals
43%
Dinamo Minsk U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)
42%
Dinamo Minsk U19 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mainz 05 U19 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Dinamo Minsk U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mainz 05 U19 attack 1.25 + Dinamo Minsk U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Dinamo Minsk U19 attack 1.20 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mainz 05 U19 scores more
32%
level
26%
Dinamo Minsk U19 scores more
43%

Dinamo Minsk U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: Mainz 05 U19 1–1 Dinamo Minsk U19

Mainz 05 U19 and Dinamo Minsk U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA Youth League on November 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion am Bruchweg in Mainz.