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Mainz 05 U19 vs 1860 München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Mainz 05 U19
Mainz 05 U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
1860 München U19
1860 München U19
11/25/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 12Stadion am Bruchweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Mainz 05 U1953%
×Draw20%
1860 München U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mainz 05 U19
2.30
1860 München U19
1.60

Mainz 05 U19 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 48 away

creates per match

Mainz 05 U19
2.53
1860 München U19
1.71

allows per match

Mainz 05 U19
1.50
1860 München U19
2.08

finishing

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par
1860 München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mainz 05 U19 ↓

1860 München U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Mainz 05 U19 or draw
73%
Mainz 05 U19 or 1860 München U19
80%
Draw or 1860 München U19
47%

Winning margin

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+
32%
1860 München U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals
90%
Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals
67%
Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals
40%
1860 München U19 1+ goals
80%
1860 München U19 2+ goals
47%
1860 München U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)
66%
1860 München U19 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mainz 05 U19 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

1860 München U19 away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.53 + 1860 München U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.30

1860 München U19 attack 1.71 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mainz 05 U19 scores more
53%
level
20%
1860 München U19 scores more
27%

Mainz 05 U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mainz 05 U19 vs 1860 München U19

Mainz 05 U19 and 1860 München U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion am Bruchweg in Mainz.