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Aarhus Fremad vs Odder — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
FT
0 – 0
Odder
Odder
8/22/20182nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 4Riisvangen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Aarhus Fremad56%
×Draw22%
Odder22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarhus Fremad
1.93
Odder
1.12

Aarhus Fremad creates 72% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 7 away

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad
1.99
Odder
1.14

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad
1.10
Odder
1.86

finishing

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par
Odder+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad ↓

Odder →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad or draw
78%
Aarhus Fremad or Odder
78%
Draw or Odder
44%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
33%
Odder wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
85%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
57%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
30%
Odder 1+ goals
67%
Odder 2+ goals
31%
Odder 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
72%
Odder (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.10 · 81 matches

Odder away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.99 + Odder defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.93

Odder attack 1.14 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Aarhus Fremad scores more
56%
level
22%
Odder scores more
22%

Aarhus Fremad at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Aarhus Fremad 0–0 Odder

Aarhus Fremad and Odder drew 0-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on August 22, 2018.

The match was played at Riisvangen Stadion in Århus.