Istaravshan 0–0 CSKA Pomir: Result & Stats

Istaravshan

FT

0 – 0

CSKA Pomir

4/27/2013

Vysshaya Liga · Round 4Stadion Istaravshan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Istaravshan32%

×Draw28%

CSKA Pomir40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IstaravshanExpected goals in this matchCSKA Pomir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.23

Istaravshan

1.07

CSKA Pomir

1.23

CSKA Pomir creates 15% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 27 away

1.22

creates per match

1.15

1.31

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Istaravshan

1.22

CSKA Pomir

1.15

allows per match

Istaravshan

1.31

CSKA Pomir

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Istaravshan+0.00on par

CSKA Pomir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istaravshan ↓

CSKA Pomir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Istaravshan or draw

60%

Istaravshan or CSKA Pomir

72%

Draw or CSKA Pomir

68%

Winning margin

Istaravshan wins by 2+

12%

CSKA Pomir wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Istaravshan 1+ goals

66%

Istaravshan 2+ goals

29%

Istaravshan 3+ goals

9%

CSKA Pomir 1+ goals

71%

CSKA Pomir 2+ goals

35%

CSKA Pomir 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Istaravshan (draw refunded)

45%

CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istaravshan at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

CSKA Pomir away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istaravshan attack 1.22 + CSKA Pomir defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.07

CSKA Pomir attack 1.15 + Istaravshan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Istaravshan scores more

32%

level

28%

CSKA Pomir scores more

40%

CSKA Pomir at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CSKA Pomir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff