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CSKA Pomir vs Istaravshan — Vysshaya Liga 2025

CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Istaravshan
Istaravshan
K. Mirzokhon 90'
V. Safarov 86'
A. Kwasi 21'
D. Sharipov 5'
I. Barotov 53' (pen)
5/10/2025Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 8Stadion Politekhnikum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

CSKA Pomir57%
×Draw22%
Istaravshan21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Pomir
1.92
Istaravshan
1.07

CSKA Pomir creates 79% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 32 away

creates per match

CSKA Pomir
2.06
Istaravshan
0.97

allows per match

CSKA Pomir
1.17
Istaravshan
1.78

finishing

CSKA Pomir+0.00on par
Istaravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Pomir ↓

Istaravshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

CSKA Pomir or draw
79%
CSKA Pomir or Istaravshan
78%
Draw or Istaravshan
43%

Winning margin

CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
33%
Istaravshan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
85%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
57%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
30%
Istaravshan 1+ goals
66%
Istaravshan 2+ goals
29%
Istaravshan 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
73%
Istaravshan (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Pomir at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

Istaravshan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Pomir attack 2.06 + Istaravshan defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.92

Istaravshan attack 0.97 + CSKA Pomir defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

CSKA Pomir scores more
57%
level
22%
Istaravshan scores more
21%

CSKA Pomir at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "CSKA Pomir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
D. Sharipov
21'
A. Kwasi
53'
I. BarotovPenalty
86'
V. Safarov
90'
K. Mirzokhon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA Pomir vs Istaravshan

CSKA Pomir beat Istaravshan 4-1 in Vysshaya Liga on May 10, 2025.

Goals: D. Sharipov (5'), A. Kwasi (21'), I. Barotov (53' pen), V. Safarov (86'), K. Mirzokhon (90').

The match was played at Stadion Politekhnikum in Dushanbe.