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Khatlon vs Istiqlol — Vysshaya Liga 2014

Khatlon
Khatlon
FT
0 – 3
Istiqlol
Istiqlol
6/21/2014Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 9Stadion Pakhtakor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Khatlon24%
×Draw26%
Istiqlol50%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khatlon
0.99
Istiqlol
1.54

Istiqlol creates 56% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 33 away

creates per match

Khatlon
1.38
Istiqlol
2.09

allows per match

Khatlon
1.00
Istiqlol
0.61

finishing

Khatlon+0.00on par
Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khatlon ↓

Istiqlol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Khatlon or draw
50%
Khatlon or Istiqlol
74%
Draw or Istiqlol
76%

Winning margin

Khatlon wins by 2+
9%
Istiqlol wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Khatlon 1+ goals
63%
Khatlon 2+ goals
26%
Khatlon 3+ goals
8%
Istiqlol 1+ goals
79%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
45%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Khatlon (draw refunded)
33%
Istiqlol (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khatlon at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 40 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khatlon attack 1.38 + Istiqlol defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.99

Istiqlol attack 2.09 + Khatlon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Khatlon scores more
24%
level
26%
Istiqlol scores more
50%

Istiqlol at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khatlon vs Istiqlol

Istiqlol beat Khatlon 3-0 in Vysshaya Liga on June 21, 2014.

The match was played at Stadion Pakhtakor in Kurgan-Tyube.