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CSKA Pomir vs Kuktosh — Vysshaya Liga 2019

CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
FT
3 – 2
Kuktosh
Kuktosh
9/14/2019Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 14Stadion Politekhnikum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

CSKA Pomir51%
×Draw20%
Kuktosh28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Pomir
2.27
Kuktosh
1.66

CSKA Pomir creates 37% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 11 away

creates per match

CSKA Pomir
2.00
Kuktosh
1.82

allows per match

CSKA Pomir
1.50
Kuktosh
2.55

finishing

CSKA Pomir+0.00on par
Kuktosh+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Pomir ↓

Kuktosh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

CSKA Pomir or draw
72%
CSKA Pomir or Kuktosh
80%
Draw or Kuktosh
49%

Winning margin

CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
31%
Kuktosh wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
90%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
66%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
39%
Kuktosh 1+ goals
81%
Kuktosh 2+ goals
49%
Kuktosh 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
64%
Kuktosh (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Pomir at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

Kuktosh away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Pomir attack 2.00 + Kuktosh defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.27

Kuktosh attack 1.82 + CSKA Pomir defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

CSKA Pomir scores more
51%
level
20%
Kuktosh scores more
28%

CSKA Pomir at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "CSKA Pomir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: CSKA Pomir 3–2 Kuktosh

CSKA Pomir beat Kuktosh 3-2 in Vysshaya Liga on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Politekhnikum in Dushanbe.