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Kuktosh vs CSKA Pomir — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Kuktosh
Kuktosh
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
A. Sultonov 74'
6/29/2023Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 5Stadion Neftyanik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kuktosh24%
×Draw27%
CSKA Pomir49%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuktosh
0.90
CSKA Pomir
1.42

CSKA Pomir creates 58% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Kuktosh
1.00
CSKA Pomir
1.15

allows per match

Kuktosh
1.69
CSKA Pomir
0.79

finishing

Kuktosh+0.00on par
CSKA Pomir+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuktosh ↓

CSKA Pomir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kuktosh or draw
51%
Kuktosh or CSKA Pomir
73%
Draw or CSKA Pomir
76%

Winning margin

Kuktosh wins by 2+
8%
CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Kuktosh 1+ goals
59%
Kuktosh 2+ goals
23%
Kuktosh 3+ goals
6%
CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
76%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
41%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kuktosh (draw refunded)
33%
CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuktosh at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

CSKA Pomir away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuktosh attack 1.00 + CSKA Pomir defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.90

CSKA Pomir attack 1.15 + Kuktosh defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kuktosh scores more
24%
level
27%
CSKA Pomir scores more
49%

CSKA Pomir at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CSKA Pomir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

74'
A. Sultonov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuktosh vs CSKA Pomir

Kuktosh beat CSKA Pomir 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on June 29, 2023.

Goals: A. Sultonov (74').

The match was played at Stadion Neftyanik in Rudaki.