Maidstone Utd 1–0 Farnborough: Result & Stats

Maidstone Utd

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Farnborough

3/14/2026

League #51

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maidstone Utd49%

×Draw25%

Farnborough26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maidstone UtdExpected goals in this matchFarnborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.08

Maidstone Utd

1.57

Farnborough

1.08

Maidstone Utd creates 45% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 21 away

1.25

creates per match

1.67

0.50

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Maidstone Utd

1.25

Farnborough

1.67

allows per match

Maidstone Utd

0.50

Farnborough

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maidstone Utd+0.00on par

Farnborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maidstone Utd ↓

Farnborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Maidstone Utd or draw

74%

Maidstone Utd or Farnborough

75%

Draw or Farnborough

51%

Winning margin

Maidstone Utd wins by 2+

25%

Farnborough wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Maidstone Utd 1+ goals

79%

Maidstone Utd 2+ goals

46%

Maidstone Utd 3+ goals

21%

Farnborough 1+ goals

66%

Farnborough 2+ goals

29%

Farnborough 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Maidstone Utd (draw refunded)

65%

Farnborough (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maidstone Utd at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Farnborough away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maidstone Utd attack 1.25 + Farnborough defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.57

Farnborough attack 1.67 + Maidstone Utd defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Maidstone Utd scores more

49%

level

25%

Farnborough scores more

26%

Maidstone Utd at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Maidstone Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff