Maidenhead 2–1 Salisbury: Result & Stats

Maidenhead

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Salisbury

C. Eubank 83'

E. Onariase 45'

T. Willard 11'

2/24/2026

League #51 · South - 35York Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maidenhead48%

×Draw26%

Salisbury26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaidenheadExpected goals in this matchSalisbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.04

Maidenhead

1.49

Salisbury

1.04

Maidenhead creates 43% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

1.25

creates per match

1.07

1.00

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Maidenhead

1.25

Salisbury

1.07

allows per match

Maidenhead

1.00

Salisbury

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maidenhead+0.00on par

Salisbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maidenhead ↓

Salisbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Maidenhead or draw

74%

Maidenhead or Salisbury

74%

Draw or Salisbury

52%

Winning margin

Maidenhead wins by 2+

24%

Salisbury wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Maidenhead 1+ goals

77%

Maidenhead 2+ goals

44%

Maidenhead 3+ goals

19%

Salisbury 1+ goals

65%

Salisbury 2+ goals

28%

Salisbury 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Maidenhead (draw refunded)

64%

Salisbury (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maidenhead at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Salisbury away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maidenhead attack 1.25 + Salisbury defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.49

Salisbury attack 1.07 + Maidenhead defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Maidenhead scores more

48%

level

26%

Salisbury scores more

26%

Maidenhead at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Maidenhead will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

T. Willard

45'

E. Onariase

83'

C. Eubank

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff