Maidenhead 2–2 Farnborough: Result & Stats

Maidenhead

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Farnborough

J. Umerah 47'

L. Dulson 23'

B. Clifford 73'

M. Bloomfield 60'

2/7/2026

League #51 · South - 31York Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maidenhead43%

×Draw25%

Farnborough32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaidenheadExpected goals in this matchFarnborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.33

Maidenhead

1.57

Farnborough

1.33

Maidenhead creates 18% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 21 away

1.25

creates per match

1.67

1.00

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Maidenhead

1.25

Farnborough

1.67

allows per match

Maidenhead

1.00

Farnborough

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maidenhead+0.00on par

Farnborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maidenhead ↓

Farnborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Maidenhead or draw

68%

Maidenhead or Farnborough

75%

Draw or Farnborough

57%

Winning margin

Maidenhead wins by 2+

22%

Farnborough wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Maidenhead 1+ goals

79%

Maidenhead 2+ goals

46%

Maidenhead 3+ goals

21%

Farnborough 1+ goals

74%

Farnborough 2+ goals

38%

Farnborough 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Maidenhead (draw refunded)

57%

Farnborough (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maidenhead at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Farnborough away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maidenhead attack 1.25 + Farnborough defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.57

Farnborough attack 1.67 + Maidenhead defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Maidenhead scores more

43%

level

25%

Farnborough scores more

32%

Maidenhead at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Maidenhead will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

47'

60'

73'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff