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Maiak Chirsova vs FC Stăuceni — Cupa 2020

Maiak Chirsova
Maiak Chirsova
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC Stăuceni
FC Stăuceni
9/14/2022CupaCupa · 2nd RoundStadionul Chirsova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maiak Chirsova40%
×Draw20%
FC Stăuceni40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maiak Chirsova
2.11
FC Stăuceni
2.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Maiak Chirsova
2.00
FC Stăuceni
2.22

allows per match

Maiak Chirsova
2.00
FC Stăuceni
2.22

finishing

Maiak Chirsova+0.00on par
FC Stăuceni+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maiak Chirsova ↓

FC Stăuceni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Maiak Chirsova or draw
60%
Maiak Chirsova or FC Stăuceni
80%
Draw or FC Stăuceni
60%

Winning margin

Maiak Chirsova wins by 2+
22%
FC Stăuceni wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Maiak Chirsova 1+ goals
88%
Maiak Chirsova 2+ goals
62%
Maiak Chirsova 3+ goals
35%
FC Stăuceni 1+ goals
88%
FC Stăuceni 2+ goals
62%
FC Stăuceni 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Maiak Chirsova (draw refunded)
50%
FC Stăuceni (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maiak Chirsova at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

FC Stăuceni away — creates 2.22, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maiak Chirsova attack 2.00 + FC Stăuceni defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.11

FC Stăuceni attack 2.22 + Maiak Chirsova defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Maiak Chirsova scores more
40%
level
20%
FC Stăuceni scores more
40%

Maiak Chirsova at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Maiak Chirsova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maiak Chirsova vs FC Stăuceni

FC Stăuceni beat Maiak Chirsova 2-0 in Cupa on September 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Chirsova in Chirsova.