Mahasarakham United 1–1 Surin Sugar: Result & Stats

Mahasarakham United

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Surin Sugar

10/20/2021

League Cup · 2nd Qualifying RoundMaha Sarakham Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mahasarakham United75%

×Draw14%

Surin Sugar11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mahasarakham UnitedExpected goals in this matchSurin Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.90

1.02

Mahasarakham United

2.90

Surin Sugar

1.02

Mahasarakham United creates 184% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

1.29

creates per match

0.75

1.29

allows per match

4.50

creates per match

Mahasarakham United

1.29

Surin Sugar

0.75

allows per match

Mahasarakham United

1.29

Surin Sugar

4.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mahasarakham United+0.00on par

Surin Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mahasarakham United ↓

Surin Sugar →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Mahasarakham United or draw

89%

Mahasarakham United or Surin Sugar

86%

Draw or Surin Sugar

25%

Winning margin

Mahasarakham United wins by 2+

55%

Surin Sugar wins by 2+

Team goals

Mahasarakham United 1+ goals

94%

Mahasarakham United 2+ goals

78%

Mahasarakham United 3+ goals

54%

Surin Sugar 1+ goals

64%

Surin Sugar 2+ goals

27%

Surin Sugar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mahasarakham United (draw refunded)

88%

Surin Sugar (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mahasarakham United at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Surin Sugar away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mahasarakham United attack 1.29 + Surin Sugar defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 2.90

Surin Sugar attack 0.75 + Mahasarakham United defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 75%?"

Mahasarakham United scores more

75%

level

14%

Surin Sugar scores more

11%

Mahasarakham United at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Mahasarakham United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff