Mahasarakham United 1–4 Rayong FC: Result & Stats

Mahasarakham United

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Rayong FC

P. Perm 45'

S. Sontisawat 90'

S. Ratree 78', 18'

S. Junior 54' (pen)

10/29/2025

FA Cup · Round of 64Maha Sarakham Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mahasarakham United15%

×Draw16%

Rayong FC69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mahasarakham UnitedExpected goals in this matchRayong FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

2.83

Mahasarakham United

1.25

Rayong FC

2.83

Rayong FC creates 126% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

2.67

3.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Mahasarakham United

1.00

Rayong FC

2.67

allows per match

Mahasarakham United

3.00

Rayong FC

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mahasarakham United+0.00on par

Rayong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mahasarakham United ↓

Rayong FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Mahasarakham United or draw

31%

Mahasarakham United or Rayong FC

84%

Draw or Rayong FC

85%

Winning margin

Mahasarakham United wins by 2+

6%

Rayong FC wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Mahasarakham United 1+ goals

71%

Mahasarakham United 2+ goals

36%

Mahasarakham United 3+ goals

13%

Rayong FC 1+ goals

94%

Rayong FC 2+ goals

77%

Rayong FC 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Mahasarakham United (draw refunded)

17%

Rayong FC (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mahasarakham United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Rayong FC away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mahasarakham United attack 1.00 + Rayong FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rayong FC attack 2.67 + Mahasarakham United defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Mahasarakham United scores more

15%

level

16%

Rayong FC scores more

69%

Rayong FC at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Rayong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

S. Ratree

45'

P. Perm

54'

S. JuniorPenalty

78'

S. Ratree

90'

S. Sontisawat

Mahasarakham

Rayong

Manager: J. Tonehongsa

Manager: Jukkapant Punpee