Mahasarakham United 2–0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Mahasarakham United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

A. Saito 19'

K. Artserm 5'

1/28/2026

League Cup · Round of 16Maha Sarakham Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mahasarakham United59%

×Draw22%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mahasarakham UnitedExpected goals in this matchNakhon Ratchasima FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.98

Mahasarakham United

1.90

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

0.98

Mahasarakham United creates 94% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.29

creates per match

0.67

1.29

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Mahasarakham United

1.29

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

0.67

allows per match

Mahasarakham United

1.29

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mahasarakham United+0.00on par

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mahasarakham United ↓

Nakhon Ratchasima FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mahasarakham United or draw

81%

Mahasarakham United or Nakhon Ratchasima FC

78%

Draw or Nakhon Ratchasima FC

41%

Winning margin

Mahasarakham United wins by 2+

34%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Mahasarakham United 1+ goals

85%

Mahasarakham United 2+ goals

56%

Mahasarakham United 3+ goals

29%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals

62%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals

26%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mahasarakham United (draw refunded)

75%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mahasarakham United at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mahasarakham United attack 1.29 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.67 + Mahasarakham United defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mahasarakham United scores more

59%

level

22%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more

19%

Mahasarakham United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mahasarakham United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

K. Artserm

19'

A. Saito

Mahasarakham

Nakhon

Manager: J. Tonehongsa

Manager: Ithsara Sritharo