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Mahasarakham United vs Bangkok — Thai League 2 2018

Mahasarakham United
Mahasarakham United
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Bangkok
Bangkok
9/14/2024Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 5Maha Sarakham Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Mahasarakham United48%
×Draw23%
Bangkok29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mahasarakham United
1.85
Bangkok
1.38

Mahasarakham United creates 34% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 33 away

creates per match

Mahasarakham United
1.77
Bangkok
1.42

allows per match

Mahasarakham United
1.34
Bangkok
1.94

finishing

Mahasarakham United+0.00on par
Bangkok+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mahasarakham United ↓

Bangkok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mahasarakham United or draw
71%
Mahasarakham United or Bangkok
77%
Draw or Bangkok
52%

Winning margin

Mahasarakham United wins by 2+
27%
Bangkok wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mahasarakham United 1+ goals
84%
Mahasarakham United 2+ goals
55%
Mahasarakham United 3+ goals
28%
Bangkok 1+ goals
75%
Bangkok 2+ goals
40%
Bangkok 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Mahasarakham United (draw refunded)
63%
Bangkok (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mahasarakham United at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

Bangkok away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mahasarakham United attack 1.77 + Bangkok defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.85

Bangkok attack 1.42 + Mahasarakham United defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mahasarakham United scores more
48%
level
23%
Bangkok scores more
29%

Mahasarakham United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mahasarakham United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Mahasarakham United 3–2 Bangkok

Mahasarakham United beat Bangkok 3-2 in Thai League 2 on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Maha Sarakham Provincial Stadium in Maha Sarakham.