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Maharlika vs Manila Montet — PFL 2020

Maharlika
Maharlika
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Manila Montet
Manila Montet
6/2/2024PFLPFL · Round 7Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Maharlika83%
×Draw9%
Manila Montet8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maharlika
4.44
Manila Montet
1.43

Maharlika creates 210% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 8 away

creates per match

Maharlika
1.63
Manila Montet
0.00

allows per match

Maharlika
2.85
Manila Montet
7.25

finishing

Maharlika+0.00on par
Manila Montet+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maharlika ↓

Manila Montet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–18%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Maharlika or draw
92%
Maharlika or Manila Montet
91%
Draw or Manila Montet
17%

Winning margin

Maharlika wins by 2+
68%
Manila Montet wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Maharlika 1+ goals
99%
Maharlika 2+ goals
92%
Maharlika 3+ goals
78%
Manila Montet 1+ goals
76%
Manila Montet 2+ goals
42%
Manila Montet 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Maharlika (draw refunded)
92%
Manila Montet (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maharlika at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.85 · 40 matches

Manila Montet away — creates 0.00, concedes 7.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maharlika attack 1.63 + Manila Montet defence 7.25 → ÷2 → 4.44

Manila Montet attack 0.00 + Maharlika defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Maharlika scores more
83%
level
9%
Manila Montet scores more
8%

Maharlika at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Maharlika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maharlika vs Manila Montet

Maharlika beat Manila Montet 5-0 in PFL on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium in Manila.