Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Maharlika vs Loyola — PFL 2020

Maharlika
Maharlika
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Loyola
Loyola
2/17/2025PFLPFL · Round 6Biñan Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Maharlika42%
×Draw20%
Loyola38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maharlika
2.22
Loyola
2.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 16 away

creates per match

Maharlika
1.63
Loyola
1.38

allows per match

Maharlika
2.85
Loyola
2.81

finishing

Maharlika+0.00on par
Loyola+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maharlika ↓

Loyola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Maharlika or draw
62%
Maharlika or Loyola
80%
Draw or Loyola
58%

Winning margin

Maharlika wins by 2+
24%
Loyola wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Maharlika 1+ goals
89%
Maharlika 2+ goals
65%
Maharlika 3+ goals
38%
Loyola 1+ goals
88%
Loyola 2+ goals
62%
Loyola 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Maharlika (draw refunded)
52%
Loyola (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maharlika at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.85 · 40 matches

Loyola away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maharlika attack 1.63 + Loyola defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.22

Loyola attack 1.38 + Maharlika defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Maharlika scores more
42%
level
20%
Loyola scores more
38%

Maharlika at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Maharlika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maharlika vs Loyola

Loyola beat Maharlika 1-0 in PFL on February 17, 2025.

The match was played at Biñan Football Stadium in Biñan.