Maguary PE 0–2 Central SC: Result & Stats | Serie D

Maguary PE

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Central SC

Leozynho 90'

Diego Aragao 41'

4/26/2026

Serie D · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Maguary PE48%

×Draw29%

Central SC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maguary PEExpected goals in this matchCentral SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.77

Maguary PE

1.26

Central SC

0.77

Maguary PE creates 64% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 37 away

1.57

creates per match

0.84

0.71

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Maguary PE

1.57

Central SC

0.84

allows per match

Maguary PE

0.71

Central SC

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maguary PE+0.00on par

Central SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maguary PE ↓

Central SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Maguary PE or draw

77%

Maguary PE or Central SC

71%

Draw or Central SC

52%

Winning margin

Maguary PE wins by 2+

22%

Central SC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Maguary PE 1+ goals

72%

Maguary PE 2+ goals

36%

Maguary PE 3+ goals

13%

Central SC 1+ goals

54%

Central SC 2+ goals

18%

Central SC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Maguary PE (draw refunded)

68%

Central SC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maguary PE at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Central SC away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maguary PE attack 1.57 + Central SC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.26

Central SC attack 0.84 + Maguary PE defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Maguary PE scores more

48%

level

29%

Central SC scores more

23%

Maguary PE at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Maguary PE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Diego Aragao

62'

90'

Leozynho

Maguary

Central

Manager: Lima Sued

Manager: Leandro Sena