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Magpies Crusaders vs Olympic — Queensland NPL 2019

Magpies Crusaders
Magpies Crusaders
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Olympic
Olympic
3/13/2021Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 2Sologinkin Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Magpies Crusaders16%
×Draw16%
Olympic69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magpies Crusaders
1.41
Olympic
3.02

Olympic creates 114% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 103 away

creates per match

Magpies Crusaders
1.21
Olympic
2.01

allows per match

Magpies Crusaders
4.03
Olympic
1.60

finishing

Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par
Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magpies Crusaders ↓

Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Magpies Crusaders or draw
31%
Magpies Crusaders or Olympic
84%
Draw or Olympic
84%

Winning margin

Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+
6%
Olympic wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals
76%
Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals
41%
Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals
17%
Olympic 1+ goals
95%
Olympic 2+ goals
80%
Olympic 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)
18%
Olympic (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magpies Crusaders at home — creates 1.21, concedes 4.03 · 29 matches

Olympic away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.60 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magpies Crusaders attack 1.21 + Olympic defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.41

Olympic attack 2.01 + Magpies Crusaders defence 4.03 → ÷2 → 3.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Magpies Crusaders scores more
16%
level
16%
Olympic scores more
69%

Olympic at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Magpies Crusaders 2–3 Olympic

Olympic beat Magpies Crusaders 3-2 in Queensland NPL on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Sologinkin Oval in Glenella.