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Magpies Crusaders vs Lions — Queensland NPL 2019

Magpies Crusaders
Magpies Crusaders
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Lions
Lions
9/18/2021Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 25Sologinkin Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Magpies Crusaders11%
×Draw13%
Lions76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magpies Crusaders
1.21
Lions
3.25

Lions creates 169% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 99 away

creates per match

Magpies Crusaders
1.21
Lions
2.47

allows per match

Magpies Crusaders
4.03
Lions
1.22

finishing

Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par
Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magpies Crusaders ↓

Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Magpies Crusaders or draw
24%
Magpies Crusaders or Lions
87%
Draw or Lions
89%

Winning margin

Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+
4%
Lions wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals
70%
Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals
34%
Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals
12%
Lions 1+ goals
96%
Lions 2+ goals
83%
Lions 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)
13%
Lions (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magpies Crusaders at home — creates 1.21, concedes 4.03 · 29 matches

Lions away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.22 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magpies Crusaders attack 1.21 + Lions defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lions attack 2.47 + Magpies Crusaders defence 4.03 → ÷2 → 3.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Magpies Crusaders scores more
11%
level
13%
Lions scores more
76%

Lions at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Magpies Crusaders 2–4 Lions

Lions beat Magpies Crusaders 4-2 in Queensland NPL on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Sologinkin Oval in Glenella.