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Magpies Crusaders vs Brisbane Strikers — Queensland NPL 2019

Magpies Crusaders
Magpies Crusaders
FT
0 – 2
Brisbane Strikers
Brisbane Strikers
2/15/2020Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 2Sologinkin Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Magpies Crusaders21%
×Draw17%
Brisbane Strikers62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magpies Crusaders
1.72
Brisbane Strikers
2.96

Brisbane Strikers creates 72% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 40 away

creates per match

Magpies Crusaders
1.21
Brisbane Strikers
1.88

allows per match

Magpies Crusaders
4.03
Brisbane Strikers
2.23

finishing

Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par
Brisbane Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magpies Crusaders ↓

Brisbane Strikers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Magpies Crusaders or draw
38%
Magpies Crusaders or Brisbane Strikers
83%
Draw or Brisbane Strikers
79%

Winning margin

Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+
10%
Brisbane Strikers wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals
82%
Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals
51%
Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals
25%
Brisbane Strikers 1+ goals
95%
Brisbane Strikers 2+ goals
79%
Brisbane Strikers 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)
25%
Brisbane Strikers (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magpies Crusaders at home — creates 1.21, concedes 4.03 · 29 matches

Brisbane Strikers away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.23 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magpies Crusaders attack 1.21 + Brisbane Strikers defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.72

Brisbane Strikers attack 1.88 + Magpies Crusaders defence 4.03 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Magpies Crusaders scores more
21%
level
17%
Brisbane Strikers scores more
62%

Brisbane Strikers at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Brisbane Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Magpies Crusaders vs Brisbane Strikers

Brisbane Strikers beat Magpies Crusaders 2-0 in Queensland NPL on February 15, 2020.

The match was played at Sologinkin Oval in Glenella.