Magpies Crusaders 1–1 Brisbane City: Result & Stats

Magpies Crusaders

FT

1 – 1

Brisbane City

2/29/2020

Queensland NPL · Round 4Sologinkin Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Magpies Crusaders17%

×Draw16%

Brisbane City68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magpies CrusadersExpected goals in this matchBrisbane City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

3.03

Magpies Crusaders

1.48

Brisbane City

3.03

Brisbane City creates 105% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 80 away

1.21

creates per match

2.02

4.03

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Magpies Crusaders

1.21

Brisbane City

2.02

allows per match

Magpies Crusaders

4.03

Brisbane City

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Brisbane City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magpies Crusaders ↓

Brisbane City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Magpies Crusaders or draw

32%

Magpies Crusaders or Brisbane City

84%

Draw or Brisbane City

83%

Winning margin

Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+

7%

Brisbane City wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals

77%

Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals

43%

Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals

19%

Brisbane City 1+ goals

95%

Brisbane City 2+ goals

80%

Brisbane City 3+ goals

57%

Draw no bet

Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)

20%

Brisbane City (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magpies Crusaders at home — creates 1.21, concedes 4.03 · 29 matches

Brisbane City away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.76 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magpies Crusaders attack 1.21 + Brisbane City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Brisbane City attack 2.02 + Magpies Crusaders defence 4.03 → ÷2 → 3.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Magpies Crusaders scores more

17%

level

16%

Brisbane City scores more

68%

Brisbane City at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Brisbane City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff