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Magni vs Samherjar — Cup 2019

Magni
Magni
FT
4 – 0
Samherjar
Samherjar
4/1/2023CupCup · 1st RoundBoginn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Magni64%
×Draw15%
Samherjar20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magni
3.75
Samherjar
2.17

Magni creates 73% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Magni
2.00
Samherjar
0.33

allows per match

Magni
4.00
Samherjar
5.50

finishing

Magni+0.00on par
Samherjar+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magni ↓

Samherjar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
83%17%4.5
67%33%

Double chance

Magni or draw
80%
Magni or Samherjar
85%
Draw or Samherjar
36%

Winning margin

Magni wins by 2+
46%
Samherjar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Magni 1+ goals
97%
Magni 2+ goals
88%
Magni 3+ goals
70%
Samherjar 1+ goals
89%
Samherjar 2+ goals
64%
Samherjar 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Magni (draw refunded)
76%
Samherjar (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magni at home — creates 2.00, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Samherjar away — creates 0.33, concedes 5.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magni attack 2.00 + Samherjar defence 5.50 → ÷2 → 3.75

Samherjar attack 0.33 + Magni defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Magni scores more
64%
level
15%
Samherjar scores more
20%

Magni at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Magni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Magni vs Samherjar

Magni beat Samherjar 4-0 in Cup on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Boginn in Akureyri.