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Magni vs Fjardabyggd — 2. Deild 2018

Magni
Magni
FT
4 – 2
Fjardabyggd
Fjardabyggd
7/28/20212. Deild2. Deild · Round 14Grenivíkurvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Magni53%
×Draw21%
Fjardabyggd26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magni
2.08
Fjardabyggd
1.41

Magni creates 48% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 43 away

creates per match

Magni
1.96
Fjardabyggd
1.00

allows per match

Magni
1.82
Fjardabyggd
2.19

finishing

Magni+0.00on par
Fjardabyggd+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magni ↓

Fjardabyggd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Magni or draw
74%
Magni or Fjardabyggd
79%
Draw or Fjardabyggd
47%

Winning margin

Magni wins by 2+
31%
Fjardabyggd wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Magni 1+ goals
87%
Magni 2+ goals
61%
Magni 3+ goals
34%
Fjardabyggd 1+ goals
76%
Fjardabyggd 2+ goals
41%
Fjardabyggd 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Magni (draw refunded)
67%
Fjardabyggd (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magni at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

Fjardabyggd away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magni attack 1.96 + Fjardabyggd defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.08

Fjardabyggd attack 1.00 + Magni defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Magni scores more
53%
level
21%
Fjardabyggd scores more
26%

Magni at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Magni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Magni vs Fjardabyggd

Magni beat Fjardabyggd 4-2 in 2. Deild on July 28, 2021.

The match was played at Grenivíkurvöllur in Grenivík.