Maghreb Fès 0–2 Youssoufia Berrechid

Maghreb Fès

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Youssoufia Berrechid

5/28/2022

Cup · Quarter-finalsComplexe Sportif de Fès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maghreb Fès32%

×Draw25%

Youssoufia Berrechid43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maghreb FèsExpected goals in this matchYoussoufia Berrechid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.50

Maghreb Fès

1.25

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.50

Youssoufia Berrechid creates 20% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

0.75

creates per match

1.25

1.75

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Maghreb Fès

0.75

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.25

allows per match

Maghreb Fès

1.75

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maghreb Fès ↓

Youssoufia Berrechid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Maghreb Fès or draw

57%

Maghreb Fès or Youssoufia Berrechid

75%

Draw or Youssoufia Berrechid

68%

Winning margin

Maghreb Fès wins by 2+

13%

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Maghreb Fès 1+ goals

71%

Maghreb Fès 2+ goals

36%

Maghreb Fès 3+ goals

13%

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals

78%

Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals

44%

Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)

42%

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maghreb Fès at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Youssoufia Berrechid away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maghreb Fès attack 0.75 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.25

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 1.25 + Maghreb Fès defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Maghreb Fès scores more

32%

level

25%

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more

43%

Youssoufia Berrechid at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Youssoufia Berrechid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff