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Maghreb Fès vs UTS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Maghreb Fès
Maghreb Fès
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
9/14/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 2Stade Hassan-II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Maghreb Fès43%
×Draw29%
UTS Rabat28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maghreb Fès
1.26
UTS Rabat
0.95

Maghreb Fès creates 33% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 61 away

creates per match

Maghreb Fès
1.16
UTS Rabat
1.07

allows per match

Maghreb Fès
0.82
UTS Rabat
1.36

finishing

Maghreb Fès+0.00on par
UTS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maghreb Fès ↓

UTS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Maghreb Fès or draw
72%
Maghreb Fès or UTS Rabat
71%
Draw or UTS Rabat
57%

Winning margin

Maghreb Fès wins by 2+
20%
UTS Rabat wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Maghreb Fès 1+ goals
72%
Maghreb Fès 2+ goals
36%
Maghreb Fès 3+ goals
13%
UTS Rabat 1+ goals
61%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
25%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)
61%
UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maghreb Fès at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.82 · 90 matches

UTS Rabat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maghreb Fès attack 1.16 + UTS Rabat defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.26

UTS Rabat attack 1.07 + Maghreb Fès defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Maghreb Fès scores more
43%
level
29%
UTS Rabat scores more
28%

Maghreb Fès at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Maghreb Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maghreb Fès vs UTS Rabat

UTS Rabat beat Maghreb Fès 2-1 in Botola Pro on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Hassan-II in Fès.