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Maghreb Fès vs Olympique Khouribga — Botola Pro 2025

Maghreb Fès
Maghreb Fès
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
10/14/2022Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 6Complexe Sportif de Fès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Maghreb Fès46%
×Draw29%
Olympique Khouribga24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maghreb Fès
1.25
Olympique Khouribga
0.82

Maghreb Fès creates 52% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 60 away

creates per match

Maghreb Fès
1.16
Olympique Khouribga
0.82

allows per match

Maghreb Fès
0.82
Olympique Khouribga
1.33

finishing

Maghreb Fès+0.00on par
Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maghreb Fès ↓

Olympique Khouribga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Maghreb Fès or draw
76%
Maghreb Fès or Olympique Khouribga
71%
Draw or Olympique Khouribga
54%

Winning margin

Maghreb Fès wins by 2+
21%
Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Maghreb Fès 1+ goals
71%
Maghreb Fès 2+ goals
36%
Maghreb Fès 3+ goals
13%
Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
56%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
20%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)
66%
Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maghreb Fès at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.82 · 90 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maghreb Fès attack 1.16 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Olympique Khouribga attack 0.82 + Maghreb Fès defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Maghreb Fès scores more
46%
level
29%
Olympique Khouribga scores more
24%

Maghreb Fès at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Maghreb Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Maghreb Fès 2–0 Olympique Khouribga

Maghreb Fès beat Olympique Khouribga 2-0 in Botola Pro on October 14, 2022.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif de Fès in Fès.