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Maghreb Fès vs KAC Kenitra — Botola 2 2025

Maghreb Fès
Maghreb Fès
FT
1 – 1
KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
2/16/2020Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 19Stade d'Honneur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Maghreb Fès52%
×Draw27%
KAC Kenitra21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maghreb Fès
1.45
KAC Kenitra
0.82

Maghreb Fès creates 77% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 73 away

creates per match

Maghreb Fès
1.64
KAC Kenitra
0.93

allows per match

Maghreb Fès
0.71
KAC Kenitra
1.26

finishing

Maghreb Fès+0.00on par
KAC Kenitra+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maghreb Fès ↓

KAC Kenitra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Maghreb Fès or draw
79%
Maghreb Fès or KAC Kenitra
73%
Draw or KAC Kenitra
48%

Winning margin

Maghreb Fès wins by 2+
26%
KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Maghreb Fès 1+ goals
77%
Maghreb Fès 2+ goals
42%
Maghreb Fès 3+ goals
18%
KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
56%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
20%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)
71%
KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maghreb Fès at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

KAC Kenitra away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maghreb Fès attack 1.64 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.45

KAC Kenitra attack 0.93 + Maghreb Fès defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Maghreb Fès scores more
52%
level
27%
KAC Kenitra scores more
21%

Maghreb Fès at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Maghreb Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maghreb Fès vs KAC Kenitra

Maghreb Fès and KAC Kenitra drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stade d'Honneur in Meknès.