Maghreb Fès 4–0 Hassania Agadir: Result & Stats

Maghreb Fès

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hassania Agadir

4/29/2026

Botola Pro · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Maghreb Fès44%

×Draw30%

Hassania Agadir25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maghreb FèsExpected goals in this matchHassania Agadir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.80

Maghreb Fès

1.17

Hassania Agadir

0.80

Maghreb Fès creates 46% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 121 away

1.16

creates per match

0.79

0.82

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Maghreb Fès

1.16

Hassania Agadir

0.79

allows per match

Maghreb Fès

0.82

Hassania Agadir

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maghreb Fès ↓

Hassania Agadir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Maghreb Fès or draw

75%

Maghreb Fès or Hassania Agadir

70%

Draw or Hassania Agadir

56%

Winning margin

Maghreb Fès wins by 2+

19%

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Maghreb Fès 1+ goals

69%

Maghreb Fès 2+ goals

33%

Maghreb Fès 3+ goals

11%

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals

55%

Hassania Agadir 2+ goals

19%

Hassania Agadir 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)

64%

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maghreb Fès at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.82 · 90 matches

Hassania Agadir away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.17 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maghreb Fès attack 1.16 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hassania Agadir attack 0.79 + Maghreb Fès defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Maghreb Fès scores more

44%

level

30%

Hassania Agadir scores more

25%

Maghreb Fès at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Maghreb Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff