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Magesi vs Royal AM — Premier Soccer League 2018

Magesi
Magesi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Royal AM
Royal AM
9/28/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 3Old Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Magesi42%
×Draw27%
Royal AM32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magesi
1.38
Royal AM
1.16

Magesi creates 19% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 50 away

creates per match

Magesi
1.13
Royal AM
1.10

allows per match

Magesi
1.22
Royal AM
1.62

finishing

Magesi+0.00on par
Royal AM+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magesi ↓

Royal AM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Magesi or draw
68%
Magesi or Royal AM
73%
Draw or Royal AM
58%

Winning margin

Magesi wins by 2+
20%
Royal AM wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Magesi 1+ goals
75%
Magesi 2+ goals
40%
Magesi 3+ goals
16%
Royal AM 1+ goals
69%
Royal AM 2+ goals
32%
Royal AM 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Magesi (draw refunded)
57%
Royal AM (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magesi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Royal AM away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.62 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magesi attack 1.13 + Royal AM defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.38

Royal AM attack 1.10 + Magesi defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Magesi scores more
42%
level
27%
Royal AM scores more
32%

Magesi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Magesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Magesi vs Royal AM

Magesi and Royal AM drew 0-0 in Premier Soccer League on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Old Peter Mokaba Stadium in Pietersburg.