Magdeburg U19 0–5 Hertha BSC U19: Result & Stats

Magdeburg U19

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Hertha BSC U19

B. Dárdai 62', 16'

D. Schickersinsky 60'

P. Pereira Mendes 56'

P. Matiebel 54'

10/8/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 6Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Magdeburg U1934%

×Draw20%

Hertha BSC U1946%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magdeburg U19Expected goals in this matchHertha BSC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

2.24

Magdeburg U19

1.91

Hertha BSC U19

2.24

Hertha BSC U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 77 away

2.37

creates per match

2.47

2.00

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Magdeburg U19

2.37

Hertha BSC U19

2.47

allows per match

Magdeburg U19

2.00

Hertha BSC U19

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg U19 ↓

Hertha BSC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Magdeburg U19 or draw

54%

Magdeburg U19 or Hertha BSC U19

80%

Draw or Hertha BSC U19

66%

Winning margin

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

18%

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

85%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

57%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

30%

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

89%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

65%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

Hertha BSC U19 away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.44 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.37 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.91

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.47 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Magdeburg U19 scores more

34%

level

20%

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

46%

Hertha BSC U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

B. Dárdai

45'

M. Ruffing← B. Engelhardt

54'

56'

60'

62'

67'

L. Michelbrink← D. Ajvazi

72'

D. Strobach← E. Elekwa

72'

L. Sommer← P. Matiebel

76'

D. Karsten← I. Maza

76'

O. Rölke← B. Dárdai

76'

S. Akova← P. Pereira Mendes

81'

C. Krüger← J. Mehnert

81'

M. Condé← N. Höfer

Magdeburg

Hertha

Goller

Stange

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Mendes

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Wölfel

45'▲M. Ruffing←▼B. Engelhardt

72'▲D. Strobach←▼E. Elekwa

81'▲C. Krüger←▼J. Mehnert

81'▲M. Condé←▼N. Höfer

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

RuffingStrobachKrügerCondéMeierBirkKallis

Manager: O. Reiß

67'▲L. Michelbrink←▼D. Ajvazi

72'▲L. Sommer←▼P. Matiebel

76'▲D. Karsten←▼I. Maza

76'▲O. Rölke←▼B. Dárdai

76'▲S. Akova←▼P. Pereira Mendes

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

MichelbrinkSommerKarstenRölkeAkovaConrad

Match Recap: Magdeburg U19 vs Hertha BSC U19

Hertha BSC U19 beat Magdeburg U19 5-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 8, 2022.

Goals: B. Dárdai (16', 62'), P. Matiebel (54'), P. Pereira Mendes (56'), D. Schickersinsky (60').

The match was played at Platz 2 MCDD-Arena in Magdeburg.

Magdeburg U19 vs Hertha BSC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Magdeburg U19 vs Hertha BSC U19