Magdeburg U19 4–1 Hansa Rostock U19: Result & Stats

Magdeburg U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Hansa Rostock U19

L. Mergner 90'

B. Hamidovic 68'

J. Frenzel 44'

M. Baars 8' (pen)

J. Linow 33'

9/22/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 7Heinrich-Germer-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Magdeburg U1949%

×Draw20%

Hansa Rostock U1932%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magdeburg U19Expected goals in this matchHansa Rostock U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.39

1.92

Magdeburg U19

2.39

Hansa Rostock U19

1.92

Magdeburg U19 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 58 away

2.37

creates per match

1.84

2.00

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Magdeburg U19

2.37

Hansa Rostock U19

1.84

allows per match

Magdeburg U19

2.00

Hansa Rostock U19

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Hansa Rostock U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg U19 ↓

Hansa Rostock U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Magdeburg U19 or draw

68%

Magdeburg U19 or Hansa Rostock U19

80%

Draw or Hansa Rostock U19

51%

Winning margin

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

29%

Hansa Rostock U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

91%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

69%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

42%

Hansa Rostock U19 1+ goals

85%

Hansa Rostock U19 2+ goals

57%

Hansa Rostock U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Hansa Rostock U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

Hansa Rostock U19 away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.37 + Hansa Rostock U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.39

Hansa Rostock U19 attack 1.84 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Magdeburg U19 scores more

49%

level

20%

Hansa Rostock U19 scores more

32%

Magdeburg U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Magdeburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

M. BaarsPenalty

20'

E. Siebert← S. Chukwemeka

33'

J. Linow

44'

J. Frenzel

59'

L. Grabenberg← M. Baars

67'

67'

67'

68'

77'

77'

77'

S. Termini← M. Heiden

83'

B. Ekobena-Seeger← M. Kadner

90'

L. Mergner

Magdeburg

Hansa

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Baars

Manager: D. Wölfel

20'▲E. Siebert←▼S. Chukwemeka

59'▲L. Grabenberg←▼M. Baars

83'▲B. Ekobena-Seeger←▼M. Kadner

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

SiebertGrabenbergEkobena-SeegerGüllmeisterStraußMadumereGantzke

Manager: C. Rahn

67'▲B. Peters←▼B. Schulz

67'▲H. Schwarz←▼M. Kelm

67'▲M. Krebs←▼C. Weber

77'▲J. Cierach←▼R. Falk

77'▲L. Billep←▼K. Janke

77'▲S. Termini←▼M. Heiden

Hansa Rostock U19 substitutes

PetersSchwarzKrebsCierachBillepTerminiSchreck