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Magdeburg U19 vs Hallescher FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Magdeburg U19
Magdeburg U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hallescher FC U19
Hallescher FC U19
4/25/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Magdeburg U1955%
×Draw19%
Hallescher FC U1925%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magdeburg U19
2.44
Hallescher FC U19
1.62

Magdeburg U19 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 37 away

creates per match

Magdeburg U19
2.37
Hallescher FC U19
1.24

allows per match

Magdeburg U19
2.00
Hallescher FC U19
2.51

finishing

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par
Hallescher FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg U19 ↓

Hallescher FC U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Magdeburg U19 or draw
75%
Magdeburg U19 or Hallescher FC U19
81%
Draw or Hallescher FC U19
45%

Winning margin

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+
35%
Hallescher FC U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals
91%
Magdeburg U19 2+ goals
70%
Magdeburg U19 3+ goals
43%
Hallescher FC U19 1+ goals
80%
Hallescher FC U19 2+ goals
48%
Hallescher FC U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)
69%
Hallescher FC U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

Hallescher FC U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.51 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.37 + Hallescher FC U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.44

Hallescher FC U19 attack 1.24 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Magdeburg U19 scores more
55%
level
19%
Hallescher FC U19 scores more
25%

Magdeburg U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Magdeburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Magdeburg
Hallescher
D. Wölfel
Manager: D. Wölfel
T. Donath
Manager: T. Donath

Match Recap: Magdeburg U19 vs Hallescher FC U19

Magdeburg U19 and Hallescher FC U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on April 25, 2026.