Magdeburg U19 4–0 Chemnitzer FC U19: Result & Stats

Magdeburg U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chemnitzer FC U19

L. Bölke 90+3'

J. Nischalke 88', 57'

R. Meier 80'

4/2/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 16Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Magdeburg U1956%

×Draw19%

Chemnitzer FC U1925%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magdeburg U19Expected goals in this matchChemnitzer FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.71

Magdeburg U19

2.56

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.71

Magdeburg U19 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 51 away

2.37

creates per match

1.41

2.00

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Magdeburg U19

2.37

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.41

allows per match

Magdeburg U19

2.00

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg U19 ↓

Chemnitzer FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Magdeburg U19 or draw

75%

Magdeburg U19 or Chemnitzer FC U19

81%

Draw or Chemnitzer FC U19

44%

Winning margin

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

36%

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

92%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

72%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

46%

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

82%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

51%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

Chemnitzer FC U19 away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.75 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.37 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.56

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.41 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Magdeburg U19 scores more

56%

level

19%

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

25%

Magdeburg U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Magdeburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

J. Nischalke

61'

P. Thon← P. Gysbers

61'

R. Meier← A. Oikonomidis

73'

F. Heidler← T. Kortüm

73'

80'

87'

88'

89'

L. Bölke← J. Nischalke

90+1'

V. Tunc← M. Berg

90+3'

L. Bölke

Magdeburg

Chemnitzer

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Nischalke

▼

Gysbers

Manager: P. Sander

61'▲P. Thon←▼P. Gysbers

61'▲R. Meier←▼A. Oikonomidis

89'▲L. Bölke←▼J. Nischalke

90+1'▲V. Tunc←▼M. Berg

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

ThonMeierBölkeTuncEngelhardtGräfAchtenberg

Manager: J. Stephan

73'▲F. Heidler←▼T. Kortüm

73'▲Y. Luib←▼P. Kämpfer

87'▲R. Riesen←▼J. Jušić

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

HeidlerLuibRiesenDorfsPawlettaWolterWeidauer

U19 Bundesliga: Magdeburg U19 4–0 Chemnitzer FC U19

Magdeburg U19 beat Chemnitzer FC U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 2, 2022.

Goals: J. Nischalke (57', 88'), R. Meier (80'), L. Bölke (90+3').

The match was played at Platz 2 MCDD-Arena in Magdeburg.

Magdeburg U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Magdeburg U19 4–0 Chemnitzer FC U19