Magdeburg U19 2–0 BAK 07 U19: Result & Stats

Magdeburg U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

BAK 07 U19

M. Schauer 25'

R. Meier 7'

11/19/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 10Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Magdeburg U1957%

×Draw19%

BAK 07 U1924%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magdeburg U19Expected goals in this matchBAK 07 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.67

Magdeburg U19

2.58

BAK 07 U19

1.67

Magdeburg U19 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 33 away

2.37

creates per match

1.33

2.00

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Magdeburg U19

2.37

BAK 07 U19

1.33

allows per match

Magdeburg U19

2.00

BAK 07 U19

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg U19 ↓

BAK 07 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Magdeburg U19 or draw

76%

Magdeburg U19 or BAK 07 U19

81%

Draw or BAK 07 U19

43%

Winning margin

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

37%

BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

92%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

72%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

47%

BAK 07 U19 1+ goals

81%

BAK 07 U19 2+ goals

50%

BAK 07 U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

70%

BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

BAK 07 U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.37 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.58

BAK 07 U19 attack 1.33 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Magdeburg U19 scores more

57%

level

19%

BAK 07 U19 scores more

24%

Magdeburg U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Magdeburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

R. Meier

25'

M. Schauer

30'

A. Akdağ← B. Sevim

46'

O. Iraqi← M. Mohammadi

64'

O. Scheiermann← A. Oikonomidis

66'

M. Kalini← J. Kliti

73'

C. Krüger← L. Bölke

81'

C. Kavurmacioglu← A. Aksoy

88'

F. Schuler

88'

L. Mergner← V. Masuth

Magdeburg

BAK

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: D. Wölfel

64'▲O. Scheiermann←▼A. Oikonomidis

73'▲C. Krüger←▼L. Bölke

88'▲L. Mergner←▼V. Masuth

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

ScheiermannKrügerMergnerElekwaLeinweberHamidovicBaars

Manager: A. Arsovic

30'▲A. Akdağ←▼B. Sevim

46'▲O. Iraqi←▼M. Mohammadi

66'▲M. Kalini←▼J. Kliti

81'▲C. Kavurmacioglu←▼A. Aksoy

BAK 07 U19 substitutes

AkdağIraqiKaliniKavurmaciogluIzciKizmaz